Four things that look alike, and are not.
Evidence shows four different kinds of information about a live market. In most products they would be blended into one feed. Proofline keeps them apart, labels each one, and never lets a stronger claim borrow a weaker one's evidence.
Official resolution source
The source or rule the venue itself says will decide how this market settles.
- WHAT IT IS
- The authority the outcome depends on. Named by the venue, in the market's own resolution text.
- WHAT IT IS NOT
- It is not news, not current reporting, and not evidence that an outcome has happened. An election authority's website is the official source for an election market on the day the market opens, long before it says anything at all.
Current evidence
Recent factual information relevant to how the market may resolve.
- WHAT IT IS
- Dated, attributed, and linked to the specific resolution clause it bears on.
- WHAT IT IS NOT
- It is not a recommendation and not a forecast. Evidence can point toward an outcome and the market can still resolve the other way.
Upcoming events
Scheduled events that could affect the market or its resolution.
- WHAT IT IS
- A calendar: a hearing date, a data release, a deadline. Each carries how certain its timing is.
- WHAT IT IS NOT
- It is not a prediction that the event will move the price, and not a claim about which way. An upcoming event may affect a market; it is never certain to.
Market changes
How the market's probability moved over a period.
- WHAT IT IS
- An observation of the market, with its window stated.
- WHAT IT IS NOT
- It is never presented as being caused by anything. Proofline shows that a market moved and that an event occurred; it does not tell you the second caused the first.
Rules that apply to all four
No causation. Proofline can show that a market moved and that an event happened. Saying one caused the other requires evidence a feed does not have, so it is never said.
No filler. Where there is no evidence, the market says there is no evidence. Sections are never padded with low-quality sources to make a coverage number look better.
Official sources are never dressed as news. An official resolver is background, not a development. It is labelled neutral because it is the authority, not a signal about the outcome.
Everything is dated. A source without a date cannot be assessed for relevance, so where a publication date cannot be established the record says the date is declared-only rather than assuming one.
Nothing is a recommendation. None of this is advice to buy, sell or hold anything. It is context about what the market depends on.
When we get it wrong
Evidence gets misattached, sources go stale, and classifications are sometimes simply wrong. There is a route for saying so, and corrections are recorded rather than quietly applied.