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CASE FILE · PAPER-MEANREV-8H-OVERNIGHT-02
LIVE TEST RECORDVERIFIED · ADAPTED2026-07-10 20:29 UTC → 2026-07-11 04:29 UTC · 8h · 33 windows
NEGATIVE
RESULT · 8-HOUR LIVE TEST · NO % BASIS DECLARED
Execution held up. The edge did not.
THINKENIGMATIC-MEANREV-15M-ADAPTED
POLYMARKET BTC 15M UP/DOWN (LIVE DATA, SIMULATED FILLS)
POLYMARKET BTC 15M UP/DOWN (LIVE DATA, SIMULATED FILLS)
PROOFLINE
LIVE TEST RECORD
RECORD SEALED
11 OF 11 CHECKED2 PARTIAL FILLSFEES $1.87REPLAY BYTE-IDENTICAL
WHAT HAPPENED?
This strategy lost $75.88 during an 8-hour live paper test. Proofline verified that the trades could go through, checked the final market results, and reran the record to confirm the same outcome.
WHAT WAS TESTED?
8-hour live paper test: Polymarket BTC 15m up/down (live data, simulated fills) · 2026-07-10 20:29 UTC → 2026-07-11 04:29 UTC · 8h · 33 windows.
WHY TRUST IT?
All trades were checked against live market availability, all final results were settled, and replay reproduced the same record.
WHAT IS STILL UNKNOWN?
This does not mean the strategy will keep losing or winning. It only verifies what happened in this run.
EVIDENCE · EXPAND TO INSPECT
PLAIN STORY FIRST · PROOF UNDERNEATH
After fees and final market results, verbatim from the sealed report. Dollar figures live here in the evidence layer. No percentage is shown because the record declares no capital basis, and Proofline does not invent one.
How many times the rules fired during the tested period.
Every simulated trade was checked against the order book's displayed availability at that moment. “Partly” means the book showed less than the strategy wanted, so only the displayed amount filled.
Positions close against the venue's official resolution, never a guess.
Positions still awaiting a final result when the record ended. Anything pending stays pending; results after the recording stopped are never filled in.
Live paper ledger chain equals the replay-of-captured-log ledger chain, byte-identical across all 43 ledger events; the replay report hash was stable across 3 independent replays (verified 2026-07-11).
- ✓Trade signals
- ✓Whether trades could go through
- ✓Fees
- ✓Final market results
- ✓Profit/loss
- ✓Reproducibility
Events captured6,312
Book polls (errors)5,761 (0)
Intents11
Fills11
depth_verified9
depth_partial2
Rejected0
Live settlements applied32
Open positions at end0
Fill freshness184–355 ms
- Simulated fills are model outputs, not executed trades. This gateway is GET-only public data; order placement does not exist in the codebase (test-enforced).
- The strategy has no entry-price filter: it bought NO at $0.999 and YES at $0.01 during this run. The simulator records the strategy as written; it does not fix it.
TECHNICAL PROOF · FOR THOSE WHO WANT IT
NEVER SHOWN BEFORE THE STORY
FINGERPRINTS (HASHES)
PAPER REPORT
03bb3882c80242ec9e4424faaf9ca06cff9a7650fa8b74196eab60ddf4a05c7e
LEDGER CHAIN (LIVE == REPLAY)
f2bcc261597d7c269f3bb18eb9110e9ea3e028e2442e1891381d37f426fd116e
REPLAY-OF-CAPTURE REPORT
2b7ca2b9223d7561f44fce84b0e495c8cb55ca1ce6010bd912d7a95d0908b4c8
REPRODUCIBILITY
Live paper ledger chain equals the replay-of-captured-log ledger chain, byte-identical across all 43 ledger events; the replay report hash was stable across 3 independent replays (verified 2026-07-11).
EVIDENCE FILES · PROOFLINE REPOSITORY
compiler-benchmark/paper/runs/meanrev-overnight-02/run_manifest.jsonSEALED
compiler-benchmark/paper/runs/meanrev-overnight-02/paper_report.jsonSEALED
compiler-benchmark/paper/runs/meanrev-overnight-02/manifest.jsonSEALED
compiler-benchmark/paper/runs/meanrev-overnight-02/fills.jsonlSEALED
compiler-benchmark/paper/runs/meanrev-overnight-02/settlements.jsonlSEALED
Written by the Proofline engine; the site only displays them. See the method for how a record is reproduced.
ENGINE RECORD
PAPERPAPER VERIFIEDP&L: COMPUTABLEBYTE-REPRODUCIBLE
Trust levelPAPER VERIFIED
Run statusCOMPLETED
P&L statusCOMPUTABLE
P&L DETAIL
Net P&L−$75.88
Realized P&L−$74.01
Fees$1.87
VERIFIED UNDER THE DATA AND ASSUMPTIONS SHOWN. NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.